10/30/2026
🏠 Mortgage Rates Top 7%: What’s Next for the Housing Market?
Earlier this year, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, anticipated 2026 would be a year of renewed momentum for housing. With mortgage rates rising back above 7%, he has revised his outlook. Here is his latest perspective.
📈 Rates Remain Elevated
Mortgage rates have held above 7% since late September, well above the 6.5% average Yun projected for the year. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to remain near 7.3% through the end of the year.
📊 A More Measured Forecast
In response, Yun has lowered his 2026 projections once again. He now expects existing home sales and prices to grow roughly 2% or less over 2025, with new home sales declining about 5%.
✨ Rates Remain the Key
Yun describes interest rates as “the magic that drives the market.” Should rates approach 6% in early 2027, he anticipates a meaningful return of buyer activity.
🔄 A Historical Perspective
Yun also notes that during past economic slowdowns, rates have typically eased and home sales have risen. Today’s conditions are a moment in the cycle, not a permanent state.
“If somehow at the beginning of 2027 we see mortgage rates closer to 6%, we will see good buying activity at that time.”
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
The Bottom Line: While higher rates have tempered the pace of the market, a clear path to recovery remains. Those who prepare thoughtfully today will be well positioned when the market turns.
We would be delighted to discuss what these national trends mean for your neighborhood and your goals. Send us a message to begin the conversation. 📩
