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10/24/2026

📊 Phoenix's national ranking changed—but that doesn't tell you what your home is worth.

The latest Case-Shiller reading showed:

📉 Phoenix monthly change: -0.10%
📈 National average: +0.37%

Year over year:

📉 Phoenix: -0.88%
📈 National: +1.52%

Phoenix moved from 16th to 17th among the cities tracked.

But there's an important limitation:

Case-Shiller data lags the current market, because it is based on transactions that closed earlier.

For someone deciding what to do with a home today, local metrics such as recent comparable sales, current competition, sale-to-list ratios, and neighborhood inventory can provide more directly relevant context. 🏡

National rankings are interesting. Your local market is what affects your property.

📲 Ask me for the current market read for your ZIP code.

10/23/2026

📅 Before you react to a 13% drop in sales, check the calendar.

Greater Phoenix recorded 5,606 closed residential sales in August, down 13% from July.

But August had:

🗓️ 21 working days
vs.
🗓️ 22 working days in July

When you adjust for the number of working days, the decline is closer to 9%.

And the year-over-year comparison is cleaner because both Augusts had 21 working days.

That comparison showed closings down 5.6% from last August.

This is a good reminder that real estate statistics need context.

📊 A headline number can look dramatic until you understand what is actually being compared.

📲 Comment “CALENDAR” and I'll show you the working-day-adjusted numbers for your city.

10/22/2026

🏡 Home prices softened—but sellers were still closing near asking.

In August, sellers collected 97.24% of their list price at closing. That's essentially unchanged from July and a year ago.

At the same time:

📉 Maricopa County median price: $445,500
📉 Down 1.4% from July
📉 Annual gain narrowed to 0.7%, from 2.3%

Put those numbers together and you get an important distinction:

Prices can soften without buyers suddenly demanding huge discounts from asking price.

The bigger issue may be what happens *before* a home reaches the closing table. If a property is priced too aggressively, it may spend longer on the market, require a price adjustment, or eventually expire.

🎯 That's why the starting price matters.

📲 Want to know the sale-to-list ratio for homes competing with yours? Send me your address.

10/21/2026

🏔️ Three Northeast Valley markets are still showing very strong seller-side conditions.

The latest index readings:

📍 Paradise Valley: 207.8
📈 Up 13%

📍 Fountain Hills: 193.4
📈 Up 10%

📍 Scottsdale: 156.0
📈 Up 6%

For context, the index considers 110+ seller-favored.

But there's an important lesson here:

A strong local market doesn't mean every home automatically sells quickly or at any price.

Pricing, property condition, location, and competition still matter.

And because these three markets are behaving differently from much of Greater Phoenix, a metro-wide average may not accurately describe what a luxury homeowner is experiencing.

📊 Local data matters—especially at the higher end.

📲 Selling in Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, or Scottsdale? Message me for the market-index history in your city.

10/20/2026

📍 Tempe just crossed an important market threshold.

The Cromford Market Index uses 100 as neutral.

Generally:

🔵 Below 90 = buyer-favored
⚖️ 90–110 = balanced
🔴 Above 110 = seller-favored

Tempe came in at 88.3, down 4% from 92.0.

That moves it into buyer-favored territory.

Meanwhile:

📍 Peoria: 90.3 — essentially balanced
📍 Phoenix: 115.6 — still seller-favored

So even neighboring cities can have completely different market conditions.

That's why saying “Phoenix is a buyer's market” or “Phoenix is a seller's market” can be too broad.

Your specific city matters.

📲 Comment “TEMPE” and I'll show you what is currently sitting on the market and how long it's been there.

10/19/2026

📊 Every East Valley and Northeast Valley price band saw supply increase.

That's 14 out of 14 price bands.

Here's what happened:

⬆️ Active listings increased in all 14 bands
⬇️ Sold counts decreased in all 14 bands
📈 Months of supply increased across the board

But the amount of supply isn't the same everywhere.

For example:

🏡 East Valley $400K–$500K: 2.93 months
🏠 Under $250K: 7.47 months

That's a huge difference.

Months of supply helps show how much competition buyers and sellers are facing based on the current pace of sales.

So even when an entire region moves in the same direction, your price range still determines what the market feels like.

🎯 That's why a metro-wide headline isn't enough to price a home or negotiate an offer.

📲 Tell me your price range and I'll send you the current supply number and what it means.

10/17/2026

💳 Seller concessions are still common—but the latest number is moving lower.

In August:

🏡 59% of closings included a seller concession.

Through September 7:

📉 56% month-to-date

And despite those concessions, sellers collected 97.24% of their list price in August.

So what's happening?

The negotiation isn't always showing up as a dramatic reduction in the asking price.

Instead, buyers and sellers may be negotiating through:

💰 Closing-cost assistance
🏦 Rate buydowns
🔧 Other seller-paid expenses

That makes the initial listing strategy even more important.

A seller may achieve a strong sale price—but still give money back through concessions.

📊 The real question isn't just “What did homes sell for?” It's “What did buyers actually negotiate?”

📲 Ask me what concessions are typical in your price range before you choose your list price.

10/14/2026

📉 Fewer listings left the market without selling in August.

Across the East Valley and Northeast Valley:

🏡 July: 1,234 expired/cancelled
🏡 August: 945

That's a significant month-to-month change.

The Northeast Valley saw the biggest shift:

📍 353 in August
⬇️ From 573 in July

The East Valley moved from 661 to 592.

At the same time, Cromford's listing success rate improved to 64.7%, up from 59.6% in July, and was approaching 70% month-to-date through September 6.

That doesn't mean every listing is selling quickly.

It means fewer listings are leaving the market unsuccessful.

For sellers, pricing correctly from the beginning can help prevent your listing from becoming part of the expired/cancelled group. 🎯

📲 Send me your address and I'll show you what sold nearby—and what didn't.

10/13/2026

💰 Mortgage rates are still sitting near the top of their 52-week range.

As of September 4:

🏦 30-year fixed: 6.89%
📊 52-week range: 5.99%–6.91%
📈 Up 44 basis points from a year ago

Other loan types were also close:

▪️ 15-year: 6.49%
▪️ FHA: 6.44%
▪️ VA: 6.46%

For buyers, a rate change of even a fraction of a percentage point can affect monthly payment and purchasing power.

That's why it's useful to look at the payment, not just the rate headline.

Your purchase price, down payment, loan type, taxes, insurance, and rate all work together.

📲 Send me a price and loan type, and I'll show you what the payment looks like.

10/11/2026

📐 Square footage may tell a very different story about home values.

Since the August 2022 peak, adjusted for inflation:

🏠 Under 2,000 sq. ft.: down 16–17% in real dollars
🏡 4,001–6,000 sq. ft.: up 1.8%
🏰 6,001–10,000 sq. ft.: up 15.6%

That's a surprisingly wide spread.

Why does this matter?

Because saying “Phoenix home values are up” or “down” doesn't tell you what happened to a specific type of property.

A 1,700-square-foot home and an 8,000-square-foot estate can experience very different market conditions—even when they're in the same metro area.

📊 Your home's size, location, condition, and competition all matter when determining its current position.

Don't price your home from a metro headline.

📲 Ask me for the price-per-square-foot numbers for your home's size range.

Address

15905 S 46th Street, Ste 160
Phoenix, AZ
85048

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