07/05/2026
The Phoenix Market Has Changed. Have Expectations Changed With It?
I’ve been reading a lot of headlines lately about Phoenix being a buyer’s market, home prices declining, and what comes next. As with most things in real estate, the answer is a little more complicated than the headline.
The reality is that the market has changed.
Across much of Greater Phoenix, buyers have more choices than they’ve had in years. They have more inventory to look at, more negotiating power, more opportunities to compare homes, and in many parts of the Valley, they have new construction competing directly with resale homes. That feels very different than what we experienced in 2021 and 2022 when buyers were writing offers within hours, waiving contingencies, and competing against multiple offers on nearly everything that hit the market.
For several years, many sellers became accustomed to a market where appreciation did much of the heavy lifting. Homes were increasing in value quickly and buyers were willing to compete aggressively because there simply weren’t enough homes available. That is not the market we’re in today.
Today’s buyers are taking their time. They’re comparing resale homes to new construction. They’re comparing monthly payments. They’re looking at builder incentives, interest rate buy-downs, lot locations, upgrades, schools, commute times, and overall value. They’re simply being more selective.
That doesn’t mean homes aren’t selling.
In fact, one of the things that stands out to me right now is that homes continue to go under contract and close across the Valley every single day. Buyers haven’t disappeared. Transactions are still happening. What has changed is that buyers have choices again and sellers are competing again.
One conversation I’ve had several times recently is with homeowners who purchased a newly built home a few years ago and assume it should automatically be worth more today than what they paid for it. Sometimes that’s true. Sometimes it isn’t.
In communities where builders are still actively selling homes and offering incentives, buyers have alternatives. They aren’t just comparing your home to the one down the street anymore. They’re comparing it to a brand-new home with a builder rate buy-down, closing cost assistance, design incentives, and other programs that can significantly impact affordability.
That doesn’t mean resale homes can’t compete. In many cases they absolutely can. Finished backyards, mature landscaping, larger lots, established views, completed upgrades, and premium locations within a community can be incredibly valuable to buyers. Many resale homes offer things that simply aren’t available from a builder anymore.
What it does mean is that aspirational pricing is being challenged in today’s market because buyers have too many options to ignore value.
Another thing I think gets lost in the headlines is that Phoenix is not one market.
What’s happening in Verrado is different than what’s happening in DC Ranch. What’s happening in Goodyear is different than what’s happening in Queen Creek. What’s happening in a neighborhood with active new construction is often very different than what’s happening in an established luxury community. Even price points are behaving differently. Entry-level homes, move-up homes, luxury homes, and ultra-luxury homes are not all moving in the same direction at the same pace.
Real estate has always been local, and that has never been more true than it is right now.
I also think some buyers are waiting because they believe prices are going to continue falling significantly. Nobody has a crystal ball, but what we’re seeing today feels much more like a market that’s normalizing than a market that’s in distress.
Most homeowners still have substantial equity. Foreclosure activity remains relatively low. Homes continue to sell. Contracts continue to be written. In fact, transaction activity has remained stronger than many people realize. That’s very different from the conditions we saw during the housing crisis.
For buyers, I actually think this is one of the better opportunities we’ve seen in years. Not because I think prices are about to skyrocket, and not because I think prices are about to collapse. I think it’s a good opportunity because buyers finally have something they haven’t had in a long time: options.
They can negotiate. They can compare homes. They can evaluate neighborhoods. They can make thoughtful decisions instead of feeling pressured to waive inspections and make offers within hours. To me, that’s healthy.
The luxury market is also behaving differently than many people realize.
When people hear “Phoenix market,” they often assume every segment is moving together. That’s simply not the case. Many luxury homeowners are in a very different position than sellers in some of the newer construction communities. They often have substantial equity, they are not under pressure to sell, and many are perfectly willing to wait for the right buyer rather than negotiate aggressively.
One thing we see almost every year is luxury sellers choosing to temporarily withdraw their homes from the market during the summer months rather than chase the market down. Arizona’s luxury market has always had seasonality. Many of our second-home buyers, seasonal residents, and relocation clients become much more active in the fall, winter, and spring. Because of that, some luxury sellers simply decide to wait for those buyers to return rather than remain active during the hottest months of the year.
That’s one reason broad market statistics can sometimes be misleading. A luxury property in DC Ranch, Silverleaf, North Scottsdale, or Paradise Valley may be experiencing something very different than a home in a neighborhood where builders are actively releasing inventory and offering incentives.
We’re also continuing to see luxury relocation demand.
Arizona remains attractive to buyers coming from California, Washington, Illinois, and other higher-cost states. Some are seeking a different lifestyle. Some are seeking more space. Some are looking for a more favorable tax environment. Others simply see value compared to what similar homes would cost in the markets they’re leaving.
In our own business, we’ve had multiple conversations with clients evaluating moves for exactly those reasons. Some of those conversations have resulted in purchases and relocations. We’ve even had clients contact us specifically because they were evaluating future tax changes in states like Washington and considering what that meant for their long-term plans. Those buyers continue to be an important part of the luxury market throughout Greater Phoenix.
Another reason I don’t view today’s market the same way some people do is because Arizona itself has changed. Greater Phoenix is no longer just a market driven by construction and retirees. We have a much more diversified economy than we did years ago. Technology, semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace, healthcare, logistics, financial services, and advanced manufacturing have all become meaningful parts of our economy.
That doesn’t mean every home will appreciate every year. It doesn’t mean every seller can name their price. But it does mean there are still long-term demand drivers supporting our market.
The biggest takeaway?
The Phoenix market isn’t behaving the way it did in 2021.
It also isn’t behaving the way it did in 2008.
It’s becoming more balanced.
Buyers have more leverage. Sellers need more strategy. And understanding your specific neighborhood, competition, and price point matters more than ever.
Because what’s happening in Verrado isn’t necessarily what’s happening in DC Ranch. What’s happening in Goodyear isn’t necessarily what’s happening in Queen Creek. And what’s happening in your neighborhood may be completely different from the headline you just read.
If you’re curious about what’s happening in your community, neighborhood, or price range, reach out to the Siwek Team. We’d be happy to provide a complimentary market analysis and share what we’re seeing locally.
