10/26/2026
My phone has been busy this week with one question… What are mortgage rates going to do after the Fed meeting on Wednesday? 📱🏡
Before we address this question did you know that rates have moved up about .60% in roughly seven weeks?? WOW its been a WILD Rate Market as of late. 😒
So back to the original question... I wish I could give you a definitive answer, but anyone who tells you they know exactly what mortgage rates are going to do Wednesday is guessing. What I CAN tell you is what I am watching.......
First, the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are much more closely tied to what is happening in the bond market and that market is constantly looking ahead and pricing in what it thinks the Fed is going to do before the meeting ever happens.
That is why sometimes the Fed can make a move and mortgage rates barely react… or they can even move in the opposite direction. There is an important perspective right now because rates have already moved quite a bit in the last 30 days.... According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.71% on September 3rd and was 7.32% as of October 22nd. That is a pretty significant move in less than two months.
So for me, Wednesday is not just about what the Fed DOES at 2:00… I will be paying just as much attention to what is SAID afterward.
What are they saying about inflation? What are they seeing in the economy and labor market? What does their language suggest about where policy may be headed next?
Sometimes it literally takes one statement that the market was not expecting and bonds react… which means mortgage rates can react right along with them. This is also why I am careful about telling someone to lock or float based solely on a Fed meeting. Your loan, your closing date, your tolerance for risk and the actual market that day all matter.
I cannot predict Wednesday for you… but I CAN watch it, understand what is happening and help you make an educated decision instead of guessing. And THAT is part of my job. 😊 Reach out if you want to have a conversation!! I love talking about the Markets!
