10/16/2026
👉 THE STATE OF THE 🏠 MARKET 👈
The hard truths, uncomfortable pills to swallow, and a few educated guesses. 💊🤯
Why does it feel like everything costs more? 💸
Why are mortgage rates still making people sweat? 🥵
Why are houses sitting longer, buyers negotiating harder, and sellers wondering what the heck happened? 🫠
And most importantly…
If you're thinking about buying or selling, is NOW the time to make a move, or should you sit tight and wait? 👀
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
Fair warning: This is going to be wordy. I have opinions, statistics, questionable analogies, and the attention span of a squirrel that just discovered espresso. ☕🐿️
If you make it to the end, please comment so I know these posts aren't just me yelling into the Grand Canyon; Ever wondered why parts of it are closed off to public?
Anyway I'm told there's a special place in heaven for people who read long Facebook posts. I'm also told there's a special place in hell for people who don't put their shopping carts back.
Choose your side wisely.
Clears throat.
Let's talk about the housing market.
🚨 FIRST, THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH🚨
The housing market is starting to struggling and or struggling.
That does NOT automatically mean home prices are about to fall off a cliff.
Those are two VERY different things.
As of October 2026, Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 7.4%. For perspective, it averaged 6.27% around this time last year. That is a pretty substantial difference when you're trying to qualify for a mortgage and still afford groceries, electric, gas, insurance, and the occasional emotional-support cheeseburger. 🍔
Meanwhile, September's existing-home sales came in at an annualized pace of approximately 3.99 million homes nationwide. Inventory has improved, reaching about 1.6 million homes for sale, but sales remain sluggish and affordability is still a major hurdle; especially for 1st time buyers.
Translation?
There are fewer transactions happening than a healthy housing market would like, and plenty of people are struggling to make the numbers work.
But here's the interesting part: the national median existing-home price was still up about 1.3% year over year in September.
So we have a market where sales are slow, affordability stinks, and prices are still holding up nationally.
How?
Cue the plumbing analogy minus the crack. 👨🔧
1️⃣ THE HOUSING MARKET HAS A KINK IN THE PLUMBING
Imagine a giant plumbing system.
At one end, you have buyers who need homes.
At the other end, you have homeowners who could sell their homes and create inventory.
Simple enough, right?
Except millions of homeowners refinanced or bought during 2020–2021, when mortgage rates were around 3%.
Now those same people are looking at a potential move and realizing that trading their current mortgage for a new one could mean a MUCH higher monthly payment.
So they stay put.
They don't downsize. They don't move up. They don't sell the starter home and buy the next one.
And the person who wants their starter home? They're stuck waiting in the wings.
It's like trying to flush a toddler's toy car down the toilet. 🚗🚽
The entire plumbing system backs up because one little thing is blocking the flow.
Except this toy car is a mortgage rate, and the plumber is charging 7.4%.
And no, I don't have a wrench big enough for this problem.
The result is a housing market that isn't functioning as smoothly as it should.
The lock-in effect is real. A low mortgage rate can make a homeowner reluctant to move, even when their current house no longer fits their needs.
But here's the catch: waiting for rates to fall isn't guaranteed to solve everything.
If rates drop, some homeowners may finally decide to sell. GREAT! More inventory!
But lower rates could also bring a whole new wave of buyers back into the market.
So if demand comes roaring back before supply catches up, we could see competition increase along with rising pricing again.
In other words, lower rates could help affordability for some buyers while making competition tougher for others.
The housing market: the only place where good news can create a dangerous situation. 🤦♂️
2️⃣ THE COST OF LIVING IS MAKING THE HOUSING PROBLEM WORSE 💸
Let's be honest. Housing doesn't exist in a vacuum.
People aren't just paying a mortgage.
They're paying for electricity, natural gas, fuel, groceries, insurance, repairs, childcare, and everything else required to keep a household functioning.
And when those expenses rise, the amount of money available for a down payment or monthly mortgage payment shrinks.
Even someone who technically qualifies for a $350,000 home might look at the actual payment and say:
"Yeah, I qualify. But do I also qualify for living on ramen noodles until 2048?"
This is why being approved for a mortgage and being comfortable with a mortgage are two entirely different things.
Then there are the costs of building and maintaining homes.
Tariffs, material costs, transportation costs, labor costs, and energy prices can all affect what it costs to build or repair a home. The effects vary depending on the material, project and location, but those expenses don't magically disappear.
They eventually have to be absorbed somewhere.
Sometimes that's the builder's profit margin. Sometimes it's the contractor's. Sometimes it's the consumer's wallet taking another punch.
And when the cost of new construction rises, that can make it harder for builders to offer less expensive homes.
We desperately need more housing options that ordinary people can afford. Making it more expensive to build those homes doesn't exactly help.
Now, I want to be clear about something: blaming every problem on one politician, one party, one war, one tariff, or one Federal Reserve decision is too simplistic.
Housing affordability is the result of years of supply shortages, changing demographics, building costs, land-use restrictions, interest rates, wages, and economic decisions.
There is plenty of blame to go around. We could hold a family reunion for all the people and policies that contributed to this mess. 🥴
The important question is what actually helps fix it.
3️⃣ IS THE HOUSING MARKET CRASHING? 🏚️
My take?
I do NOT think we should automatically equate a sluggish housing market with an impending 2008-style crash.
Could prices decline in certain areas or price ranges? Absolutely.
Could some homeowners get into financial trouble? Yes.
Could the national economy weaken enough to cause more problems? Also yes.
But a housing market crash requires more than people being frustrated with mortgage rates.
The circumstances leading up to the 2008 housing crisis included widespread risky lending, borrowers who couldn't sustain their payments, and a massive wave of distressed properties.
Today's situation has different underlying factors, including homeowners who are reluctant to sell because they have favorable mortgage rates and, in many cases, substantial equity.
That doesn't mean we're invincible. It means we need to look at the actual conditions rather than assume history will repeat itself in exactly the same way.
Here's another important point: national statistics do not tell you precisely what is happening in Hanover, Gettysburg, York, or every little corner of Adams County.
Real estate is LOCAL.
A well-maintained starter home in a desirable location can behave very differently from an overpriced luxury property, a home needing major repairs, or a property in an area with a different supply-and-demand balance.
Which brings me to something I think deserves attention.
Foreclosures and missed payments ⚠️
Foreclosure activity has been increasing from the unusually low levels of recent years.
ATTOM reported that foreclosure filings affected 367,460 U.S. properties in 2025, up 14% from 2024. In July 2026, foreclosure filings were up 10% year over year, while completed foreclosures were up 23%.
Those are meaningful increases, and we should pay attention to them.
BUT—and this is a very important but—foreclosure activity remains far below the levels seen during the last housing crisis.
An increase in foreclosures is a warning sign worth watching. It is not, by itself, proof that a nationwide housing collapse is around the corner.
If you're struggling with your mortgage, please don't ignore the problem and hope it disappears.
Contact your mortgage servicer early. Ask about your options. Talk with a qualified housing counselor if appropriate. If selling might be necessary, speak with a knowledgeable real estate professional before the situation becomes an emergency.
There may be options available, but the earlier you seek help, the more time you generally have to understand them.
And if you're one of the people who were told "date the rate and marry the house" and you're now struggling with the payment, I'm genuinely sorry.
That phrase was never a substitute for making sure a mortgage was affordable in the first place and that advice should have never been given.
Rates can fall. Rates can rise. Rates can sit there doing absolutely nothing while the rest of us lose our minds.
Buy what you can afford today, not what you hope you'll be able to afford tomorrow.
That advice will never go out of style.
4️⃣ WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SELLERS? 🏡
Okay, sellers. Let's talk.
If you're planning to sell, I don't think the answer is to panic.
I also don't think the answer is to price your home based on what your neighbor got in 2021, add another $50,000 because your kitchen has granite, and then stare angrily at your agent when nobody shows up.
I say this with love. ❤️
The market has changed.
Buyers are dealing with higher financing costs, and many are being much more careful about what they offer and what they'll accept.
That means pricing, condition, presentation, and negotiation matter.
A LOT.
What should sellers be doing?
1. Price according to the market you have, not the market you wish you had.
Your house might be worth more than it was five years ago. It might even be worth more than it was last year.
But the relevant question is what comparable homes are selling for NOW, what your competition looks like, and how buyers are responding.
Your Zestimate, your neighbor's opinion, and the $40,000 you spent on renovations are not a substitute for market data.
I know. I know. Nobody wants to hear that their house isn't worth the number they have in their head.
Unfortunately, the bank doesn't accept feelings as a form of down payment.
2. Don't automatically dismiss an offer because it's below asking price.
An offer is the beginning of a conversation, not a personal insult.
Look at the whole package: price, financing, contingencies, settlement date, seller assistance, appraisal risk, and the likelihood that the transaction will actually close.
A slightly lower offer with stronger terms can sometimes be better than a higher offer with a whole circus attached to it.
And if the first offer isn't what you hoped for, that doesn't mean you have to accept it. It means you need to evaluate your options.
3. Be willing to negotiate.
Depending on the property and the buyer, there may be opportunities to negotiate closing costs, repairs, settlement timing, or other terms.
Seller concessions are not automatically a bad thing. Sometimes helping a qualified buyer with closing costs can make a transaction possible without changing the asking price.
Of course, every concession affects your bottom line. Run the numbers before agreeing to anything.
4. Pay attention to the first two weeks.
The first couple of weeks on the market can provide useful feedback.
Are you getting showings? Are buyers returning for second looks? Are you receiving offers? Are people consistently commenting on the same issue?
If the activity isn't there, don't just assume buyers will eventually discover your home's greatness.
They might. They might also buy the house down the street.
Review the competition and feedback with your agent. Sometimes a pricing or presentation adjustment early on is better than sitting for months and eventually making a larger reduction.
5. Don't assume waiting automatically means making more money.
Could prices rise in your neighborhood? Absolutely.
Could rates fall and bring more buyers into the market? Absolutely.
Could rates stay high, costs continue to squeeze buyers, and your home face more competition later? Also absolutely.
Nobody has a crystal ball. Mine is currently in the shop next to my broken lottery machine and my old collection of football cards. 🔮
If you have a legitimate reason to move, the question shouldn't simply be, "Can I wait for a better market?"
It should be, "What does waiting cost me, what might I gain, and what are the risks?"
If you want to sell, let's look at your actual numbers and your options rather than gambling on a national headline.
5️⃣ WHAT ABOUT BUYERS? 👀
Dear buyers:
I have some potentially good news.
A slower market can create opportunities that simply weren't available when buyers were fighting over every decent listing.
More inventory and longer days on market can give buyers greater negotiating power. Nationally, that trend has been showing up in the data.
Does that mean every seller is desperate? NO.
Does that mean every home is overpriced? NO.
Does it mean you can offer $75,000 under asking on a beautifully maintained home and expect the seller to thank you for your generosity?
Also no. 😂
But it does mean you shouldn't assume that every transaction requires you to waive inspections, offer over asking, or agree to every seller demand.
What should buyers be doing?
1. Look at homes that have been sitting.
If a property has been on the market for several weeks, there may be a reason to negotiate.
Maybe it's overpriced. Maybe the photos aren't great. Maybe buyers have been overlooking it. Maybe the seller is ready to make a deal.
You won't know until you investigate.
Don't automatically rule out a house just because it hasn't sold in the first weekend.
2. Ask about seller assistance.
Depending on the property, your loan program, and the seller's situation, you may be able to negotiate closing costs and use that to buy down your rate..
That can preserve some of your cash for moving expenses, repairs, or the inevitable trip to the hardware store that somehow costs $287.
Have your lender explain what is permitted and how different options affect your actual cash to close.
3. Shop your mortgage.
Don't assume the first rate you're quoted is the best rate available to you.
Compare lenders, fees, points, and the overall loan terms. A lower advertised rate isn't necessarily a better deal if the fees are substantially higher.
Please remember that the widely reported national mortgage rate is a benchmark, not a personal quote. Your rate will depend on your credit, loan type, down payment, points, and other factors.
4. Get your numbers right BEFORE you fall in love with the house.
Principal and interest are only part of the payment.
You also need to account for property taxes, homeowners insurance, possible mortgage insurance, utilities, maintenance, and repairs.
A lender may approve you for more than you actually want to spend.
That doesn't mean you should spend it.
Your goal isn't to win a house at any cost. Your goal is to buy a home and still be able to enjoy your life after you move in.
5. Don't wait for the perfect interest rate.
This isn't me telling you to buy right now.
It's me telling you not to make a major financial decision based entirely on a prediction about rates.
If the home, monthly payment, cash requirements, and long-term plans make sense for you today, buying could be worth exploring.
If the payment makes you uncomfortable, waiting and saving more may be the smarter move.
And if rates eventually drop, you can investigate refinancing if you qualify and the numbers make sense. Refinancing is never guaranteed, and it comes with costs, so don't build your entire purchase strategy around it.
Again: date the house if you want, but don't marry a payment you can't afford. 💍
6️⃣ WHAT COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6–12 MONTHS? 🔮
Here's where we move from statistics into educated guessing.
I want to separate the two because there's a difference between looking at a published number and predicting what millions of buyers, sellers, lenders, investors, and policymakers will do next.
A few things could materially change the picture.
Mortgage rates
If rates decline meaningfully, some buyers may find the numbers easier to manage, and some homeowners who have been sitting on low-rate mortgages may reconsider moving.
But lower rates could also bring more buyers back into the market.
If inventory doesn't grow enough to accommodate that demand, competition could increase again.
If rates rise or stay elevated, affordability could remain a major obstacle.
The economy and employment
A weakening economy could put more pressure on household budgets and increase financial distress.
It could also influence mortgage rates, but not always in the direction people expect.
For example, weaker economic data can sometimes push mortgage rates lower. However, if inflation is rising at the same time, rates may remain elevated or even increase.
A bad jobs report isn't automatically good news for housing.
I'd rather see people doing well financially and able to afford homes than celebrate economic pain because it might shave a fraction off a mortgage rate.
Construction costs and housing supply
We need more homes that people can actually afford.
That means paying attention to construction costs, available land, zoning, infrastructure, labor, and the economics of building smaller and less expensive homes.
Policies that increase the cost of building can create additional obstacles. Policies that make it easier to add appropriate housing supply could help over time.
Unfortunately, we can't snap our fingers and have thousands of affordable homes appear next Tuesday.
I've tried. The zoning board looked at me real weird, true story.
Homeowners under financial pressure
If household expenses continue to rise faster than people's ability to absorb them, some owners may need to sell.
That could create opportunities for buyers in certain circumstances, but it could also cause genuine hardship for families.
This is one area where I'll be watching the data closely rather than pretending I can predict exactly how many properties will enter foreclosure.
Government policy
Mortgage financing proposals, tax changes, tariffs, energy policy, and other government decisions can influence the housing market.
But proposals are not the same as enacted policy, and an announcement is not the same as a program that buyers and sellers can actually use.
For example, the idea of allowing homeowners to transfer an existing low mortgage rate to a new property sounds appealing. But until a workable program is actually established, buyers and sellers shouldn't make financial plans around it.
I would love to see solutions that make moving less financially punishing and increase the supply of affordable housing.
I would also love a winning lottery ticket and a dishwasher that unloads itself.
One of those dreams may be more realistic than the others.
7️⃣ SO, WHO SHOULD BE CONCERNED? 🤔
Let's keep this practical.
Sellers who should pay attention:
Those who need to move but are pricing their home based on past market conditions.
Those whose homes have been sitting without meaningful activity.
Those who need their sale proceeds to purchase another property and haven't planned out the timing and finances.
Those who are carrying a property they can no longer comfortably afford.
Buyers who should pay attention:
Those who have been waiting for the market to become perfect before even exploring their options.
Those who assume they must offer over asking or waive inspections on every property.
Those who are stretching their budget so far that an unexpected repair would cause a financial crisis.
Those who could benefit from assistance programs but haven't explored their eligibility.
And for anyone who's struggling financially, please don't wait until you're out of options to ask for help.
The goal isn't to force a transaction. The goal is to understand your options before circumstances force your hand.
8️⃣ MY BIGGEST TAKEAWAY 🧠
I don't think the answer is to panic-buy.
I don't think the answer is to panic-sell.
The answer is to understand the market you're actually in.
If you're selling, price strategically, prepare your home, evaluate the feedback, and negotiate based on the numbers.
If you're buying, explore your options, compare financing, negotiate where appropriate, and protect your comfort level.
If you're staying put, that's a perfectly valid choice, too.
But don't assume that waiting automatically makes things better.
The market may improve in some ways and get more difficult in others. Rates may fall, but competition may rise. Inventory may increase, but affordability may remain challenging. Prices may hold nationally while individual neighborhoods experience very different results.
That's why local data matters.
And that's why I think the next 6–12 months will be worth watching VERY closely.
One final thought…
The best time to buy or sell isn't necessarily when the headlines say the market is perfect.
It's when the move makes sense for your life, your finances, and your plans—and when you understand the risks you're taking.
Sometimes the smartest real estate decision is to move.
Sometimes the smartest decision is to wait.
The trick is knowing which situation you're in rather than letting fear, FOMO, or some guy on the internet make the decision for you.
And if that guy on the internet is me, please remember I'm still the same chubby dad with questionable analogies and a suspiciously large collection of Magic cards. 😂
If you're thinking about buying or selling in Hanover, York County, Adams County, Cumberland County, or the surrounding areas, Jim and I are always happy to grab a cup of coffee, talk through the numbers, and help you understand your options. No pressure, no contract signed in blood required.
Love you all, and thanks for making it through another marathon post. You all are the Bees Knees that keep Jim and me going in this business. ❤️
Stay safe out there, friends. 🏡
DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions, observations, and educated guesses about the housing market. Published statistics reflect the sources and dates noted, and national figures do not necessarily describe conditions in every local market. Forecasts are not guarantees, and individual results vary. Please consult appropriate financial, lending, tax, or legal professionals regarding your specific circumstances. All information used in this post were gathered at the time of posting.
Legal Crap:
EXP Realty, LLC
Colin's Cell: 240-401-4365
Jim's Cell: 717-332-1285
Office: 717-800-1505
11 Carlisle Street
Hanover, PA 17331
Colin's License Number:
Small Town Agents Media is owned and operated by Colin Cameron and Jim Ling. STA is not a real estate broker or agency. STA creates media and video content for Hanover and surrounding areas, including business highlights, home tours, and general marketing. Both owners are licensed real estate agents with eXp Realty.
