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The Market Update Desk

Name: The Market Update Desk
Address: Grand Rapids, MI, 49525, US
Telephone: +16162932189

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The Market Update Desk by Scott Reilly NMLS 157524

11/11/2026

The The Market Update Desk Nov 11th
Thank you veterans for all that you have done and continue to do for us!!

-CPI came in 1/10% hot for both headline and core consumer inflation, there was no year over year number as the govt was closed last October. Energy was the main factor in the headline number, +.7% month over month and gas 1% higher in October. This should be much better come next month's report with the 20% decrease in oil we have seen. In core, the main fact was shelter costs, it accounted for all but .16% of total .3% of core reading.

FED member Waller indicated he is in favor of a .25% increase "regardless if inflation goes down next month". Also, today FED member Goolsbee indicated he also would could be looking for a .5% increase. The table is set for a minimum .25% increase in December.

We are hovering at the 5% yield mark on the 10 year treasury.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

11/06/2026

The The Market Update Desk Nov 6th
- The end of a VERY busy week!!!
- BLS jobs report blow out!!! Oct headline jobs report+165k jobs added vs exp 65k AND +84k upward revision to the 2 previous months, Education and health services showed +53k jobs, Leisure and hospitality +13k and Professional Business services +70k....but ADP showed a -27k in this category hmmmmm. The birth death model added a massive +412k, which shows the unreliability of the BLS model (look for downward revisions next month). Household survey showed unemployment was down -.01% (non rounded was -.001) and labor force participation grew by 412k. U6 all in unemployment rose to 7.9% from 7.6%. Average hourly earnings rose more than expected at +.4%
- 10 year treasury fights off the high jobs report holding at 4.827% and MBS +2bps.

next week we get inflation numbers, home sales, and 2 important bond sales.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

11/04/2026

The Market Update Desk Nov 4th

- Election is in... and we have a change to the house and the Senate.

- ADP payrolls came in strong at +86k private jobs vs expected +69,000 jobs. Job stayers were flat month over month and stayed at +4.4% year over year. Job Changers jumped up to +7.4% year over year. Health care/Education once again saw the largest job increase +29k, Hospitality +19k and for the 3rd month in a row professional business lost the most at -27k.

- 10 year treasury yield continues its 2 week march down in yield, now at 4.892%...We are back in the high 6's for mortgage rates!!!!! The next floor is all the way down to 4.8%. Dow +1500!

With the election over and rates drastically down, look for a surge of buyers coming back in the market.....if you wait you will miss this window!

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/29/2026

The Market Update Desk Oct 29th
- Brewers hang on and grind out a win and take the World Series

- PCE Headline came in at +.5% and year over year +3.6%. The year over year was 1/10 cooler than estimates. Core PCE +.3% and year over year +3.1%, both were at market estimates.
- Q3 first look GDP a blistering +3.4%, Q2 was +2.2%. Much of this is from existing AI investment spend.
- Gross Domestic Investment +19.4%. A +20.9% increase in equipment spending attributed to this jump. An 8.4% increase in Intellectual Property products is very interesting.
- Real Sales to Private Domestic Producers rose 4.9%.
- PCE on a quarterly bases cooled to +2.1% and Core +2.5%...this is down from previous quarter of +5% and +3.3%

10 year treasury falls to 4.982% (we did tick above 5% prior to the PCE report)

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/27/2026

The Market Update Desk October 27th

BREWERS score 8 in the 5th inning with2 outs and NO home runs!

- Case Shiller and FHFA report an appreciation increase of 3% in August....there IS continued home appreciation.
- Durable goods orders were up 1.8% vs expected +1.5%. Orders Ex Defense and Aircraft +.5% vs exp +.7%. Overall, a healthy report.
- We have the start of the Oct FED meeting. Look for a pause on rates, with a forward forcast of an increase in December. The market will closely look at FED Chair Warsh commentary and Q&A session.

- Anthropic announces it will schedule its IPO....it also reports much more debt than expected.

- The 10 year treasury is trading in a very tight range of a floor 4.96% and top resistance of its 25 day moving average. Look for a potential break out Thursday.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/22/2026

The Market Update Desk oct 22nd
WOW!!! 10 year treasury falls BELOW 5%!!!!
- NeoCloud companies take it on the chin! Coreweave stock and bonds fall on LARGE Tech reduction in AI Cap Ex. These companies funded massive build out via corp bond issuance. With thi large reduction in tech spend there is now concern on these corp bonds. Also continued instability in France has moved more international bond money to the US. Meta down 8%, and indicated a massive reduction in Cap Ex.

- The 10 year treasury blew threw a floor of resistance at 5.04% and now is testing the next level of 4.96!!! If we can keep this trajectory we have a good opportunity to improve more on mortgage rates!

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/19/2026

The Market Update Desk October 19th
- Dodgers lose, Brewers on to the World Series!!
- Last week's AI Hyer Scaler stock and Corp bond sell off levels out.
- More demonstrations in France has traders moving money to US Treasuries from French and German bond markets.

- Oil is slightly up today
- This week brings builder confidence index, along with Permit, start and completion data

10 year treasury yield his holding at overhead resistance of the 25 day moving average 5.14%. Our current floor of support is 5.04%.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/15/2026

The Market Update Desk October 15th
- Brewers hit back to back home runs to take game 3 from the Dodgers !

- NY FED survey shows an alarming rise in family's falling behind on payments. Additionally, the amount of families with debt to income above 40% rose to 8.6%. Top earners had an income increase of 31%.
- CPI, Headline comes in hot at +.6% month over month and +3.7% year over year. Core CPI +.3% month over month and +2.6% year over year. Almost half of headline was centered in Gas / Energy.
- Social security announced annual COLA increase of +3.6%

- This morning Asian markets were down on a run on AI hyper scaler stocks....this brought a flight to safety (US treasuries)
- FED Beige book had a record mention of inflation in relation to costs / inflation

- Retail sales rose more than expected +.8% and Super Core +.25%

- Hyper Scaler bonds show pull back and move to US Treasuries.

- 10 year at 5.0892% from high of 5.34%. Oil slightly up

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/08/2026

The Market Update Desk Oct 8th
- Euro bond yields continue to be pressured up. Germany +10bps and France +14bps in the last 2 days
- Oil up over $104 after Saudi was hit by Houthis
- FED meeting minutes show the committee believes more rate increases are needed to slow inflation, and that employment market is in "balance".....really?? They project the PCE inflation reading to increase .3% to 3.9% over the next 12 months.

- Yesterdays 10 year bond auction went well, we do have a 30 year auction today.

- The 10 year closed below a very important line of 5.29% yesterday, and we are holding even today. It is VERY important to keep under this line as the next level of resistance is a large step up.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids The Market Update Desk

09/30/2026

The Market Update Desk Sept30th

- NY FED President Williams calmed the market yesterday with his comments "After hiking rates in September there is no urgency for the FED to hike again, we have time to gather more information"

- September PCE headline month over month +.3% and year over year +3.4%. Both were better than the expected +.4% and +3.7%
Core PCE month over month +.2% and year over year +3%. These were also better than expected (+.3% and +3.3%).

- Personal income grew by +.2% and spending +.9%. There were worse than planned +.4% and +.8%.

In the PCE the largest increases were in Gas, transport services and energy. We did get relief from shelter costs and the re weighting of Portfolio management.

- Final look Q2 GDP saw a beat, +2.2% vs previous estimate of +1.5%.

- ADP payroll was a beat, +90k vs est of +68k. Service providers +59k, good producers +31k. Base pay year over year +4.4% and gross pay +4.7%. Education/health services +55k, Leisure and hospitality +22k, manufacturing +17k and construction +15k. the losers were financial services -16k and professional business services -11k.

- MBS -15, 10 year yield at 4.29% Dow -49 Oil +1.82

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

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