Paul Smith - Realtor

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Austin, TX
Paul Smith - Realtor

Partner of Twelve Rivers Realty | Austin, Texas REALTOR®, GRI | Whether you're buying, selling or leasing – let me show you everything Austin has to offer!

10/27/2026

12@12 Rivers is LIVE tomorrow, Wednesday 10/28 at noon CT.

Austin real estate, this week's numbers, and your questions answered live. Bring yours.

10/21/2026

At the end of February the 30-year averaged 5.98%. The week of October 1 it was 7.28%.

On a $400,000 loan, that's $2,393 a month in principal and interest versus $2,737. About $344 more, every month, for 30 years.

Now flip it. At 7.28%, a $350,000 loan runs about $2,395 a month. Basically the February payment, on a price $50,000 lower.

Six and a half is my line. Above it, buyers have the leverage: price, repairs and seller-paid points.

Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, Feb 26 and Oct 1, 2026. Payments are principal and interest only.

Comment NUMBERS and I'll send you my weekly Austin breakdown, straight to your inbox.

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10/07/2026

In May 2022, the Austin metro median was $550,000, 35% above the national median. This August: $412,000, about 4% below. Most of that drop came in the first year.

Why do I think it swings back? The people never stopped coming: about 53,800 new residents in the year ending July 2025. And the building pulled back. In early 2023, nearly one in five Austin apartments was under construction. Today it's fewer than one in twenty.

When rates dipped to about 6% last winter, Austin pending sales jumped 15.4% year-over-year that spring. Rates are back above 7%. The demand is waiting.

Full episode of 12 at 12 Rivers on my page.

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10/06/2026

12@12 Rivers is LIVE tomorrow. Wednesday, 10/7 at noon CT.

Tune in tomorrow at noon CT.
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10/05/2026

A 2-1 buydown on a 7% loan is still a 7% loan.

You pay 5% in year one, 6% in year two, and the full 7% from year three on. On a conventional loan, you still have to qualify at the full 7%. It feels like a win at the closing table, but once the discount runs out, the only way back down is a refi, and that only works if rates cooperate.

If I were buying today, I'd look at a 7- or 10-year ARM instead. The rate is fixed for the first 7 or 10 years, then it adjusts within the caps written into your loan. Pick a fixed period at least as long as you plan to keep the loan.

Talk to your lender about both before you sign.

Full episode of 12 at 12 Rivers on my page.

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10/01/2026

Buying east of 183 is the real estate play I'd make right now.

When you buy a home, you lock in a snapshot in time: the price, the neighborhood and the stage it's in. Twenty-five years ago that snapshot was Bouldin and Zilker. Today in 78704 the dirt value is so high the current rental rates will not cover the cost to hold.

Dirt by SH 130 puts the entry point within reach, the growth is still ahead of it, and a home there can cash flow.

These windows don't stay open forever.

Full episode of 12 at 12 Rivers on my page.

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09/22/2026

12@12 Rivers is LIVE tomorrow. Wednesday, 9/23 at noon CT.

Tune in tomorrow at noon CT.
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09/18/2026

You just watched the jobs number: 23,800 added this year, second fastest of any top 50 metro in the country. Good, but a stat like that doesn't calm anyone down when the price on their own street just dropped.

Here's the one that actually should. Austin's unemployment rate sits at 4% right now. Texas is at 4.8%. The nation is at 4.4%. The two things you need for strong Real Estate Fundamentals. Jobs and People and Austin is leading the charge at adding them both.

I said it myself in the video: if the cost of capital drops, prices jump. I track that shift every single week, before it shows up anywhere else.

Full episode of 12 at 12 Rivers on my page.

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09/15/2026

12@12 Rivers is LIVE tomorrow. Wednesday, 9/16 at noon CT.

Tune in tomorrow at noon CT.

09/10/2026

I had two identical homes hit the market this year. Same builder, same floor plan, same street.

One buyer closed in March at the top of the market. The other buyer is getting the exact same house for $140,000 less right now.

Everybody quotes "be greedy when others are fearful." Almost nobody actually does it.

Want to run the numbers on your own situation? Send me a DM.

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Address

700 Rio Grande Street
Austin, TX
78701

Website

http://TwelveRiversRealty.com/

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