21/09/2026
Some interesting data from a guy whoโs been in the property game long enough to understand it better than most.
What the chart shows:
Orange = boom years (prices rising fast)
Dark red = bust years (prices falling or flat)
Green = recovery years (slow climb back up)
The pattern over 30 years:
Every boom lasts 1 to 4 years. Every bust lasts 2 years. Every recovery takes 2 to 4 years minimum.
We're currently 3 years into a recovery that started in 2023 after the 2021-2023 bust. Based on historical cycles, we have another 1 to 2 years of recovery ahead, putting us through 2027 to 2028.
The shortest recovery in the last 30 years was 2 years. Most are 3 to 4.
The takeaway:
If you're waiting for the market to turn, you're likely waiting until late 2027 or 2028. Contracting now means you're already ahead of the buyers who sit out thinking they'll catch the turnaround sooner.
