03/17/2026
The Bank of Canada meets this Wednesday March 18 and things in the mortgage rate world have really changed since the last meeting.
2 important factors are putting heat on a potential rate change decision:
INFLATION - at its core, the BoC mandate is SOLELY to control inflation. While this month’s inflation date showed good signs, it also didn’t include the fallout of the Iran war and closure of Hormuz Strait, which has caused Oil prices (and likely much more) to spike. Rising prices = Inflation.
EMPLOYMENT - Last week’s job data for Canada was flat out BAD.
The problem is, each of the things listed above signal a rate move in opposite directions. A rate hike could be considered to combat inflation but would deal another blow to employment numbers which, absent of recent oil price surge, might suggest a rate cut being the correct move.
For now, my guess is that the Bank will opt to take a wait and see approach before making a change in one direction or the other. Once upon a time it was thought that 2026 would likely see a more stable Prime rate and possibly no change well into Q3 or Q4, if at all. That thinking may already be on the cutting room floor. Let's see what happens on Weds!
Please reach out anytime with your mortgage related questions and inquiries!!
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Shaun Serafini
Your MortgagePro