Josh Kesterson - Principal Agent - Redfin

01/10/2026

Why does every website give a different value for homes??

Look up "Tyler home prices" and you'll get answers ranging from about $253K to $350K. Is anyone lying? No, they're measuring different things.

📊 Value vs. sale price...some sites estimate what every home in town is worth, including the ones not for sale. Others report what homes actually sold for.

🏡 Which homes are selling...if more larger homes sell one month, the median jumps even if no individual house gained value. And the opposite works for a month of smaller home sales.

🔒 Texas is a non-disclosure state. Sale prices here aren't public record, so national websites are partly guessing. The most accurate numbers come from local MLS data that agents have access to.

📉 Asking vs. getting... In Tyler, listings are asking noticeably more than recent homes have actually closed for. That gap tells you a lot about who has negotiating power right now.

Sooooo, don't price your home, or your offer, off a website headline. Collect a well rounded amount of information before throwing that offer out or your home up on the market.

Have a question about the East Texas market? Drop it below and it may become a future post. 👇

29/09/2026

Texas Has Become a Housing Economics Case Study

In Redfin's July buyer-versus-seller analysis, several Texas metros ranked among the country's strongest buyer's markets. Houston had approximately 130% more sellers than buyers, San Antonio 116%, Austin 112%, and Fort Worth 86%. Redfin points in part to active homebuilding pipelines continuing to add new inventory while buyer demand has cooled.

At the statewide level, Redfin reported 180,607 Texas homes for sale in June and approximately five months of supply.

This means supply deserves much more attention when we discuss Texas real estate.

I recommend that, for East Texas, watch whether additional supply is being absorbed quickly or whether it begins translating into longer market times and additional negotiating opportunities.

Does your area of East Texas feel over-supplied, under-supplied or about right? Tell me the city and what you're seeing.

Sources: Redfin Buyer vs. Seller Report | July 2026; Redfin Texas Housing Market | June 2026.

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23/09/2026

The first thing to see on County Road 3224 is all that space!

Almost new on almost a full acre with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,775sqft.

Send me a message to explore the photos and get more details!

23/09/2026

Texas Has Become a Housing Economics Case Study

In Redfin's July buyer-versus-seller analysis, several Texas metros ranked among the country's strongest buyer's markets. Houston had approximately 130% more sellers than buyers, San Antonio 116%, Austin 112%, and Fort Worth 86%.

Redfin points, in part, to active homebuilding pipelines continuing to add new inventory while buyer demand has cooled.

At the statewide level, Redfin reported 180,607 Texas homes for sale in June and approximately five months of supply.

This means that supply deserves much more attention when we discuss Texas real estate.

I recommend that for East Texas, watch whether additional supply is being absorbed quickly or whether it begins translating into longer market times and additional negotiating opportunities.

Does your area of East Texas feel over-supplied, under-supplied or about right? Tell me the city and what you're seeing.

Sources: Redfin Buyer vs. Seller Report | July 2026; Redfin Texas Housing Market | June 2026.

22/09/2026

The lowest price isn't always the best deal...

Yesterday we examined sellers comparing competing offers. Today, let's flip the perspective.

Imagine two similar houses:

One is priced lower but needs substantial repairs.

The other costs slightly more but may have better condition or more favorable negotiated terms.

So, which is the better deal? We don't have info yet.

This means buyers should evaluate the total economics of ownership rather than focusing exclusively on purchase price.

This is what I evaluate with buyers:

Purchase price.

Monthly payment.

Cash-to-close.

Taxes and insurance.

Property condition.

Expected repairs.

Potential concessions.

Expected ownership period.

The goal isn't necessarily the largest discount. It's the best overall outcome for your particular situation.

Next, we will look at why Texas has become such an interesting housing economics case study.

21/09/2026

The highest offer isn't always the best offer...

Imagine a seller receives two offers:

One has the higher price but weaker financing and more uncertainty.

The other is slightly lower but has stronger financing and cleaner terms.

Which one should the seller choose? We don't have enough information yet.

Redfin's July data showed 14% of U.S. pending home-sale agreements fell out of contract, reminding us that an accepted contract isn't guaranteed to close.

This means that the value of an offer includes more than the number at the top of the contract.

I recommend that sellers should evaluate price, financing, contingencies, concessions, timing and probability of closing together. Each variable has it's own value and should be considered to help reach your selling goal.

Tomorrow we'll reverse the exercise for buyers.

Source: Redfin Home-Purchase Cancellations Report | July 2026.

20/09/2026

List Price and Sale Price Aren't the Same Thing

Redfin's latest reported figure in Tyler is 94.9%, down 2.8 percentage points year over year. This stat needs careful interpretation.

It doesn't mean every Tyler seller simply accepted 5.1% below asking price. Individual properties vary, and changes in asking price during the listing period can affect how these numbers are understood.

This means asking price and market value shouldn't automatically be treated as the same number.

I recommend that sellers establish asking price using current competition and recent sales rather than simply pricing high because you expect negotiation.

For buying, don't assume every listing has identical negotiating room.

Tomorrow we'll use July cancellation data to talk about why the highest offer isn't always the strongest.

Message me to talk about other terms in a contract that can have value assigned to them!

Source: Redfin Tyler Housing Market | June 2026 sale-to-list ratio: 94.9%.

18/09/2026

Be Careful With Price Per Square Foot

Price per square foot deserves the same caution. Tyler's latest Redfin data reports a median $156 per square foot, down 4.9% year over year, even though the median overall sale price was up 1.6%.

How can both be true? Because the mix of homes selling changes.

A larger home can have a lower $/SF while still selling for a higher total price. Location, age, quality and property type also matter.

This means price per square foot is useful context, but it isn't a standalone appraisal method. I like to use it as a sort of "calculus" to check my valuations.

I recommend never simply multiply your square footage by the citywide average and assume you've established market value. Remember, price per square foot is a ratio!

Tomorrow we'll examine another negotiation statistic: sale to list price.

Have you ever been given a home value based almost entirely on $/SF? Send me the number and I'll show you what else I'd consider.

Source: Redfin Tyler Housing Market | Three months ending June 2026.

17/09/2026

"My house is not the median house"

Tyler's latest median sale price is $309,731.

That does not mean every Tyler home is worth $309,731 or that every Tyler homeowner's property increased exactly 1.6%.

Median simply identifies the middle sale price in the dataset.

Individual value depends on factors such as neighborhood, size, age, condition, school district, lot, acreage, improvements and recent comparable sales.

This means that market statistics and property valuation answer different questions. Market statistics tell us about the environment. Comparable sales help us evaluate the property.

I recommend that you use citywide statistics for context not as a substitute for a property-specific analysis.

Tomorrow we'll look at another commonly misused valuation tool: price per square foot.

Curious how your home's micro-market compares with the Tyler average? Message me “MICRO” and your neighborhood.

Source: Redfin Tyler Housing Market | Three months ending June 2026.

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16/09/2026

Lower mortgage rates are one potential catalyst for increasing demand.

Redfin reports that July's monthly average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.54%, a one-year high.

Suppose rates eventually decline meaningfully. Two things could happen at once:

1. Monthly-payment affordability improves. This could help buyers financially.

2. Some buyers who have been waiting may return to the market. This could increase competition.

This means that waiting for lower rates isn't automatically a bad strategy but it isn't automatically a better deal either.

I recommend that if you're considering waiting, model both scenarios: today's payment and negotiating environment versus a lower-rate environment with potentially greater buyer competition.

Tomorrow we'll address another number that's frequently misunderstood, median sale price.

Source: Redfin July 2026 Housing Market Report | Monthly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.54%