The Fred Adams Group

Economy  slows but still looks good
07/09/2019
Satisfactory Slog

Economy slows but still looks good

June’s strong 224,000 net new jobs were a huge relief after May’s weak showing and tariff traumas. That said, YTD job growth is 171,000/month, over the last 12 months it’s 192,000/month, in CY2018 it was 223,000/month; we’re slowing. Wage growth is steady at 3.1% Y-o-Y; no inflationary conce...

July Real Estate Update. It contains Corvallis and national housing market information, plus other good...stuff.  Link i...
07/08/2019

July Real Estate Update. It contains Corvallis and national housing market information, plus other good...stuff. Link in the bio.

Oregon joins trendsetters in residential density ruling
07/03/2019
This Housing Trend May Radically Change Neighborhoods

Oregon joins trendsetters in residential density ruling

Oregon is the latest to loosen single-family zoning laws to pave the way for more homebuilding. Critics argue these laws are destroying neighborhoods.

Tenuous recovery expansion
07/02/2019
Excellent Expansion

Tenuous recovery expansion

Today, the current US economic recovery becomes the longest in US history at 10 years and one day, surpassing the previous record expansion of exactly 10 years and that ended in 3/01. At this point, I suspect this recovery will last at least another nine months. The thing that is most likely to end....

Biggest unmet housing construction remains entry level
06/27/2019
Increasing Inventories

Biggest unmet housing construction remains entry level

After a surprisingly strong 4/19 when new home sales hit an annualized rate of 679,000, new home sales returned to Earth in May with sales of 626,000. Nonetheless, YTD sales are up 4%. What’s worrying; new home inventories have been steadily rising and are now at 6.4 months, with the six highest r...

The Fed's balancing act on interest rates appear spot on
06/20/2019
Right Rate

The Fed's balancing act on interest rates appear spot on

When the Fed last met, economic data was looking good. Now, not so much. Manufacturing is probably in recession, inflation is weakening, the yield curve is inverted, the dollar is strong, and trade concerns are elevated. However, equities are near records, unemployment is ridiculously low, and house...

Employment numbers still good
06/19/2019
Excellent Employment

Employment numbers still good

In April, the latest month for which data are available, there were 7.449 million unfilled jobs, a number that has been steady for a year. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed Americans was 5.824 million, the lowest level since 12/2000. For the 14th month in a row, there were more job openings than u...

The latest national housing report from RE/MAX. Some interesting changes to the market this season. Full report in the b...
06/18/2019

The latest national housing report from RE/MAX. Some interesting changes to the market this season. Full report in the bio.

The latest National Housing Report from RE/MAX. Interesting changes to the market, the full report link in the bio.
06/18/2019

The latest National Housing Report from RE/MAX. Interesting changes to the market, the full report link in the bio.

More unintended "trade dance" consequences!
06/17/2019
Bargain Banks

More unintended "trade dance" consequences!

The widening tariff wars are a double whammy for banks. First, falling interest rates are squeezing the gap between what banks charge borrowers and what they pay depositors, known as net interest margin, which necessarily discourages lending. Moreover, as firms and households get nervous, they borro...

More Trump trade woes!
06/04/2019
Mexican Mess

More Trump trade woes!

Trump’s threat of up to 25% tariffs on Mexican imports is shocking! In 2018, total trade with Mexico, our third largest trading partner, was $611.5 billion! Moreover, two-thirds of US-Mexico trade is between factories owned by the same firm. Think auto supply chains that are hard to alter. Lastly,...

The latest RE/MAX national housing report. Check it before you wreck it. A more detailed report linked in the bio.
05/30/2019

The latest RE/MAX national housing report. Check it before you wreck it. A more detailed report linked in the bio.

Mixed messages on national housing front
05/30/2019
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Mixed messages on national housing front

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Lumber futures are down, new construction is down, what does that tell you about housing alternatives!
05/09/2019
Lousy Lumber

Lumber futures are down, new construction is down, what does that tell you about housing alternatives!

In 5/18, lumber futures hit $640/1,000 board feet. By 10/18, they were half and have largely remained there; mills are closing. New home construction has reduced GDP for five straight quarters and is 3.76% of GDP. At the peak of the boom, it was 6.67%. Moreover, YTD starts are down 9.7%, permits are...

Everyone is tired of bogus phone calls!!!
05/08/2019
Terrible Telephones

Everyone is tired of bogus phone calls!!!

The number of spam and spoof calls received by Americans has risen from 3.7% of all calls in 2017, or 100 calls/person, to 29.2% in 2018, and is expected to reach half of all calls by year end 2019. At a penny a call, the inconvenience cost Americans $3 billion in CY2018, and will cost $4 billion in...

Equilibrium is GOOD!
05/02/2019
Data Drama

Equilibrium is GOOD!

During the brief economic downturn late last year, bond yields fell along with equities because there was fear the economy was slowing, corporate profits were weakening, and inflation was expected to fade. Now, the stock market is at a record high while bond yields remain very low. This divergence m...

The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) released their House Price Index, which measures home price appreciation on si...
04/24/2019

The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) released their House Price Index, which measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts, showing that home prices rose 0.3% in February. The year over year appreciation rate dropped from 5.6% to 4.9%. Although the pace of appreciation has been moderating, 4.9% appreciation is very strong and meaningful for wealth creation…and more sustainable.

Tax Gap
04/16/2019
Tax Time

Tax Gap

Based on an IRS study from 2016 which looked at tax years 2008-2010, the size of the tax gap, the amount of money owed the IRS but not paid, averaged $406 billion/year. That means 16% of taxes went unpaid; about 2.8% of GDP. If the gap today is the same proportional size as it was then, the gap is $...

Presidential polls appear to measure party allegiance more than the position itself
04/12/2019
Presidential Popularity

Presidential polls appear to measure party allegiance more than the position itself

Going back to President Truman in the 1940s, President Trump’s approval rating has shifted less than any other sitting president. At its peak, Trump’s approval rating is 47%, at its trough it’s 38%. Obama’s approval rating was the next most stable, swinging just 16 points, and Clinton’s fo...

More of the rich get richer
04/11/2019
Petroleum Profitability

More of the rich get richer

For the first time ever, the profitability of the Saudi Aramco Oil Company was recently disclosed. In 2018, Aramco’s profit was a stunning $111 billion, easily dwarfing the world’s second most profitable firm Apple, which earned $59.4 billion. Apple is worth almost a trillion. Aramco is worth no...

Politics and the fed rate, not a good mix!
04/10/2019
Nasty Nominations

Politics and the fed rate, not a good mix!

Nasty Nominations The nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed are a direct attack on its independence. Both called for higher rates when a Democrat occupied the White House and have conveniently reversed now that a Republican is there. While two votes won’t alter outcomes now, who ...

More positive balanced outlook on economy
04/04/2019
Solid Sales

More positive balanced outlook on economy

GDP fluctuates dramatically quarter-to-quarter primarily because of three variables: government spending, inventories and exports. Stripping these variables out, one is left with a less noisy sequence that gets at the underlying strength of the US economy by zeroing in on sales to domestic buyers. A...

Interest rate lock, pretty simple
04/04/2019
Understanding Interest Rate Locks - Realty Times

Interest rate lock, pretty simple

When consumers start to get serious about buying a home or maybe refinancing an existing mortgage, one of the first things that will be researched is...

Inflation/growth balance nearly perfect!
04/04/2019
Insignificant Inflation

Inflation/growth balance nearly perfect!

Inflationary pressures are very weak. Y-o-Y February CPI is 1.5%, with core CPI at 2.1%, both down from January. February producer price inflation was 1.9%, also down from January. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure was 1.4% in January, the lowest rate since 9/16, while core was just ...

My my, that's a healthy downward swing on interest rates!
04/02/2019
Mortgage Rates Post Biggest Drop in a Decade

My my, that's a healthy downward swing on interest rates!

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plunged 22 basis points this week. Home buyers may want to rush to lock in the lower rates.

Prospective buyers don't fear a market downturn
04/02/2019
Home Shoppers: We’re Not Afraid of a Recession

Prospective buyers don't fear a market downturn

Though most expect an economic downturn soon, buyers see greater opportunity in the housing market and believe it is more resilient than in 2008.

"Open Floor Plan" not necessarily for everyone!
03/28/2019
Are Open Floor Plans Just Too Open?

"Open Floor Plan" not necessarily for everyone!

Some homeowners are finding they are starting to miss the walls in open-concept homes.

More signs of cooling economy
03/26/2019
Inversion Indignation

More signs of cooling economy

This past Friday the yield curve inverted; the 10-year rate fell below the three-month rate, the first time in over a decade. This is significant because an inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions, often by years. Since 1965, there have been two inversions not followed by a recessio...

Interesting view on red/blue demographics in flux
03/22/2019
Changing Constituents

Interesting view on red/blue demographics in flux

Over the past several years, the Democratic and Republican parties have drastically realigned. The Democrats increasingly represent higher income, college educated, coastal voters. As such, how can they realistically advocate for tax increases? Similarly, the Republican party increasingly represents...

The tricky world of shifting "Fed Rates"
03/21/2019
Fed Fears

The tricky world of shifting "Fed Rates"

With fears of growth downshifting, inflation weak, and all-important inflation expectations deteriorating, earlier today the Fed promised more patience and suggested there will be no rate hikes this year. I believe this is an overreaction. But, with rates already so low, the Fed is concerned that if...

Remax National Housing Report. Check the link in the bio for more info on local and national Real Estate and economic ne...
03/11/2019

Remax National Housing Report. Check the link in the bio for more info on local and national Real Estate and economic news. #realestatenews #remax #remaxintegrity

Timeline Photos
03/09/2019

Timeline Photos

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