10/02/2026
The Fed may pause in October. It may hike later. Meanwhile, long-term borrowing costs just reached a 24-year high.
That sounds contradictory. It isn’t.
Markets focus on the next Fed meeting, but real assets are financed over years. A short-term pause does not guarantee cheaper mortgages, acquisition debt, or development capital. The 10-year Treasury yield helps set borrowing costs across the economy.
Per Reuters and Seoul Economic Daily, October 1, 2026, Fed pause odds were around 60–65% for the October meeting after softer August PCE, even as the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 24-year high.
For real estate, the answer is not guessing one perfect rate path. It is underwriting conservatively, prioritizing current cash flow, stress-testing debt service, and preserving room to refinance, or hold longer, if rates stay elevated. That matters in multifamily, student housing, senior living, and hospitality.
The same discipline applies to businesses: durable cash flow beats a clever forecast.
“We don’t need to predict the next rate move perfectly. We need to build investments that can perform across more than one scenario.”- Tony Beaton, Managing Member, Global Equity 360
One clear takeaway: plan for a range of rates, not a single headline.
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Tony Beaton, Managing Member, Global Equity 360